No one will argue that online video is hot at the moment. Since Google's $1.6 billion acquisition of YouTube thrust online video into mainstream thinking there has been a rush of startups building video hosting platforms as well as creating content plays. There is still room in the hosting market, but only for niche and innovative products, so I won't deal with that side of the business here. Video however is only as good as the content provided, and this is the wild west for online marketers.

History Repeats Itself

Today's video marketplace looks and feels like the blogging marketplace in 2003-2004. We have a couple of big hits, and there are networks producing content, but the monetization isn't quite there yet. YouTube is experimenting with advertising and at least half a dozen startups are now offering video advertising solutions, but unfortunately they aren't really delivering big money to anyone but a handful at the top. It's just like blogging back then; Adsense launched, advertising options were few and those making money were only at the top. The good news is like any marketplace, it matures over time. There will be improved monetization options in video, it's just going to take time.

What About Podcasting?

In user generated content there has been four waves of development. Static sites, blogs, podcasting and video. Static sites are you're pre-blogging Geocities maybe made in HotDog or Dreamweaver site. Blogs need no explanation. The next stage was podcasting, and when it first became a well known idea in 2004 podcasts were the next big thing. But it didn't happen.

Don't get me wrong, I love podcasts and I produce one myself, but as a format it never came close to the popularity of blogs. There is of course a simple reason: people don't have time to listen to multiple 30-60 minute podcasts, where as we all have time to spend 10 minutes reading 100 blogs via an RSS reader once a day.

Here's the thing: some podcast related businesses have actually been very successful over the long haul.

The worlds first podcast network was the aptly named The Podcast Network (TPN). Launched by Melbourne base Cameron Reilly in February 2005, it never took venture capital, nor is it a name many will be familiar with, unlike networks such as Podshow and Podtech that have taken tens of millions in startup funding. Today, TPN does over 600,000 downloads a month and delivers 6 million page views. Most importantly: it's profitable. It wasn't for the first year, but it has been for the last 18 months, and although Reilly may not be about to retire off the earnings, it's brining enough money for him to eat and reinvest in the business, whilst also paying good money out to many of the podcasters working for the network.

The Long Haul and First Mover Status

The lesson on TPN applies equally to many blogs as well; in particular fields, first movers who lasted the distance are now dominant in their fields; The Daily Kos, TownHall and Michelle Makin in politics, Engadget and Gizmodo in Gadgets are a few examples. I'd suggest that the same will hold true for audio and video today as well. Podcasting still presents many opportunities as the initial uptake has tapered as the hype has died down. Video though still is very, very much in its early days. We've seen the odd breakaway hit already, Rocketboom comes to mind, but there is still plenty of room to succeed in video, but it won't happen overnight.

Now is the best time to claim first mover status in video content creation, and for those willing to be patient, sticking at video content production over the long term will have its rewards. I've long taught people that it takes 9-12 months for a blog to really start showing results, and I'm betting that video will have similar wait times.