Maybe not all social networking site are doomed - after all, the fundamental reason they've been successfull is that they help to fulfill the human need to communicate. But I agree with the basic common sense in your article. Inevitably we all have an information saturation threshold.

There's a self-perpetuating  over-supply of web content, driven by competition to be noticed. Content creators - be they corporations, bloggers or creators of Made For AdSense sites - need to produce more and more content to have any chance of being noticed. But as content consumers (which we all are) we'd have a better experience with the web if there were less, more relevant, and better quality content.

The current bubble, if that's what it is, will slowly deflate rather than burst. But it's a given that the novelty of being  instant authors and commentators will wear off for many people, and we'll stop calling useless crap "information" and start valuing quality again. Social networking sites will remain, but something else will be flavour of the month. 

Thanks for commenting! I definitely don't think all social networking sites are doomed. I sure hope they aren't as I'm pretty addicted to Gooruze already. Social networking sites do serve a purpose, but it seems right now we have too many serving the same purpose. Mashable recently linked to 4 social networking sites focused around event planning in the same post. They won't all survive. I think, as we're seeing with Google right now, social networking aspects will begin to be integrated into every site. I have a hard time imagining a burst like the one of 2001, but I can imagine venture capitalists putting a tighter reign on their investments in social networking sites.

How many members of FaceBook, MySpace, etc have logged in in the past 30 days, last 60 days, etc. What is the active membership of these sites, not just sign-ups? I think those numbers are better indicators of the chance that a site will last. I have set up accounts on a bunch of sites and have never gone back.

That's so true. I'm a member of probably 20+ social networking sites, but I'm only really hanging out at two right now, Gooruze and Facebook. Certain sties will definitely stick around. I'm not smart enough to say which ones, but for a social networking site to be social it needs people and if the people aren't coming then the site won't be around for long.

I disagree.  I don't think social networking sites are doomed, because it ultimately comes down to relationships.  As long as members feel a connection, they will remain loyal.